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Canada face a tipping point in their Americas Rugby Championship campaign when they host Brazil at Westhills Stadium in Langford on Saturday. It has not been a happy year for the men in red thus far, losing all three test matches including the World Cup Qualifiers to Uruguay which now sees their destiny locked into the Repechage round-robin in November. With only two test victories since June 2016 the home tie against Brazil presents itself as a must-win situation to restore confidence.
It is by no means a foregone conclusion, however. Canadian fans are reminded that a team of similar strength lost in São Paulo just a year ago. A dozen players who took the field for the Tupis that day have returned and will feel their chances of another famous victory are at a historical high point. On form this is not a Brazilian side to be dismissed after winning in Santiago for the first time ever just two weeks ago and giving Uruguay an almighty scare at Pacaembu last Friday.
Standout prop Jardel Vettorato has not made the trip after suffering an ankle injury against the Teros, and his place is given to top prospect Matheus Rocha. The 20-year-old’s rise is not unlike that of his opposite, Djustice Sears-Duru, and their confrontation at the scrum will be fascinating. Balancing his youth is veteran loosehead Jonatas Paulo, nicknamed ‘Chabal’ for his grizzled exterior, with Lucas Abud bumped to the bench beside heavyweight Caíque Silva.
Perhaps sensing a set piece battle Rodolfo Ambrosio has added extra lineout height in the form of Diego López and Michael Moraes at lock and flanker respectively. López was an unused replacement against Chile in the opening round and he has not won a cap since the match against Canada last year. For Moraes is has been even longer, winning just his third start and first since April 2015. It does leave experience on the bench in Lucas Piero and Arthur Bergo.
The backs are the strength of this Brazilian side and even absent star fullback Daniel Sancery there is danger. Laurent Bourda-Couhet has been a key attacker at scrumhalf and the midfield of Moisés Duque and Felipe Sancery is as good as any in the competition. There are two changes on the wings where De Wet van Niekerk is out, replaced by sevens regular Lucas Muller with teenager Ariel Rodrigues swapping in for Robert Tenório.
Canada have made three changes to the team that fell to the USA in Sacramento. With Matt Heaton missing Lucas Rumball moves to the openside flank and Dustin Dobravsky wins his first test start on the blindside. There is another first-time starter in 20-year-old Cole Davis on the wing and BC Bears regular Doug Fraser debuts in the midfield. Dropping to the bench are Guiseppe du Toit and Brock Staller.
Three further alterations are made to the replacements. Ryan Kotlewski steps in for Cole Keith as backup tighthead prop, Andrew Ferguson is the reserve halfback in place of Gordon McRorie, and Seattle Seawolves signing Cam Polson comes in from the cold to give Canada two second row reserves along with Conor Keys. Backup hooker Martial Lagain joins Polson as an uncapped player on the bench having been an unused replacement against the Eagles last week.
Despite their poor form Canada will remain favorites with home field advantage a significant factor. The weather forecast is damp and chilly, which will excite neither coming from the sunshine of California and São Paulo. Both sides have competent tactical kickers in Shane O’Leary and Josh Reeves, and while the lineout favors the home side this is a relatively tall Brazilian forward pack. A scrappy match looks certain with Canada odds-on to end their one-game losing streak to Brazil but not by a convincing margin.
CANADA
1 Djustice Sears-Duru, 2 Ray Barkwill, 3 Jake Ilnicki, 4 Josh Larsen, 5 Kyle Baillie, 6 Dustin Dobravsky, 7 Lucas Rumball, 8 Luke Campbell, 9 Phil Mack (capt.), 10 Shane O’Leary, 11 DTH van der Merwe, 12 Nick Blevins, 13 Doug Fraser, 14 Cole Davis, 15 Patrick Parfrey
Replacements: 16 Martial Lagain, 17 Anthony Luca, 18 Ryan Kotlewski, 19 Conor Keys, 20 Cam Polson, 21 Andrew Ferguson, 22 Guiseppe du Toit, 23 Brock Staller
BRAZIL
1 Jonatas Paulo, 2 Yan Rosetti (capt.), 3 Matheus Rocha, 4 Gabriel Paganini, 5 Diego López, 6 Michael Moraes, 7 Cléber Dias, 8 André Arruda, 9 Laurent Bourda-Couhet, 10 Josh Reeves, 11 Lucas Muller, 12 Moisés Duque, 13 Felipe Sancery, 14 Ariel Rodrigues, 15 Lucas Tranquez
Replacements: 16 Endy Willian, 17 Lucas Abud, 18 Caíque Silva, 19 Lucas Piero, 20 Arthur Bergo, 21 Will Broderick, 22 Leonardo Ceccarelli, 23 Robert Tenório
Date: Saturday, February 17
Venue: Westhills Stadium, Langford
Kickoff: 18:40 local (21:40 Eastern, 00:40 Brasilia)
Referee: Kurt Weaver (USAR)
Broadcasts: TSN5 (Canada), ESPN3 (South America), World Rugby (Stream)
